EU crisis talks about Iran


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AZ GrayBeard
01-12-2006, 12:35 PM
Surprise! Europe seems unable to negotiate with an axis of evil. I seem to remember that the U.S. was roundly criticized by France and Germany because we weren't able to talk Iraq into complying with UN demands, and used force. Now it is rather funny to watch them squirm as talks fail. If they so wish, the EU can probably continue to talk right up to the time the first Iranian Nuke goes off. Perhaps a few days before that, we will get an urgent request to do something, and we will probably save their sorry ass. Iran is a country that only understands force, and it will take more than talk to get them to stop their Nuke program. As posted a while ago, the EU is fully aware that Iran is trying to assemble missiles with enough range to reach Europe. They need a missile defense system. (Perhaps France can build a BIG bed to crawl under.) Anyway here is today's article.

BERLIN (AFP) - Europe's big three powers prepared for crisis talks to thrash out the international community's response after Iran resumed sensitive nuclear activities in defiance of calls for restraint.

Britain and the United States say the dispute is likely to end in Tehran's referral to the UN Security Council, which can impose sanctions.

As China weighed in voicing its "concern" at the resumption of nuclear fuel research, US and European officials quoted by the Washington Post said Russia had pledged not to block efforts to haul Iran before the world body.

The meeting in Berlin gathers the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, which have been negotiating with Tehran for two years to try to allay Western fears that its nuclear programme may be hiding weapons development.

Iran sparked a furious worldwide reaction Tuesday when it broke UN seals at its Natanz nuclear plant to resume research into uranium enrichment.

Enriched uranium can be used as fuel for nuclear power stations, but in its highly enriched form makes the explosive core for atomic weapons.

A defiant Iran vowed Wednesday to pursue its programme, which it insists is for civilian nuclear power. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he would not be intimidated by the "fuss."

Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a senior cleric and a key influence, said Thursday that nuclear energy was "the desire of our nation, we will pursue it."

He said Iran had decided to resume the work and "break the colonial taboos regarding our peaceful nuclear energy (programme) since the West's opposition to our peaceful nuclear energy is rooted in their colonial mentality."

Russia and China -- which have often been tactical allies of Iran at the UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) -- joined criticism of its nuclear resumption.

"We express our concern... about the recent new development in the Iranian nuclear issue," said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Kong Quan on Thursday.

"We hope that the Iranian side can do more to help build mutual trust and promote the resumption of talks between Iran and the EU countries."

Russia said breaking the seals was "cause for alarm."

Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain and US Vice President Dick Cheney both said Wednesday the likely next step was to refer Iran to the Security Council, a process which normally goes through the Vienna-based IAEA.

"The first thing to do is secure agreement for a reference to the Security Council, if that is indeed what the allies jointly decide, as I think seems likely," Blair told parliament.

A Western diplomat in Vienna said there could be a special meeting of IAEA governors in about two weeks.

US diplomats say they have a majority of votes on the 35-member IAEA board to haul Iran before the Security Council, although it was unclear if there was enough support for eventual sanctions against Tehran.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said he was "very concerned" over Tehran's activity but it was for the IAEA to deal with it, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

Cheney said in a radio interview that "probably the number one item on the agenda would be the resolution that could be enforced by sanctions, were they (the Iranians) to fail to comply with it."

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said it was "more likely than ever that we are headed to the Security Council on this question."

He said US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice conferred Wednesday by phone with British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Rice spoke earlier with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country has offered to house Iranian uranium-enrichment activities on its soil as a control and confidence-building measure.

US officials had privately made no secret of their scepticism over the EU's negotiating efforts so far, but now appear convinced that their tactic of letting the talks run their course has borne fruit in highlighting Tehran's intransigence.

The Washington Post said Russia's pledge not to block moves to take Tehran before the Security Council was only good for a vote within the IAEA, but that it was uncertain how Moscow would act once the issue hit the top world body.

It said US officials considered Russia's pledge a victory, and they would now spend next few weeks working to secure support from China.

Kong, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, urged Iran and the EU powers to use dialogue to resolve the crisis, and refused to speculate on how Beijing would act on any resolution.

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7.62mmFMJ
01-12-2006, 01:36 PM
Chamberlainism is alive and well. Negotiating after they have the fission devices is a tad late.

si6
01-12-2006, 05:16 PM
it just goes to prove...the united nations can cry all they want..and nothin will get done

OFallon
01-12-2006, 05:42 PM
The big three have referred this to the IAEA who have announced they will present it to the Security Council and (wonder of wonders) Russia and China have signaled they concur.

Perhaps, Iran will not try to get away with violating resolutions like Iraq and Libya did... because I don't think either the EU or US is going to be patient.

AZ GrayBeard
01-12-2006, 06:12 PM
The big three have referred this to the IAEA who have announced they will present it to the Security Council and (wonder of wonders) Russia and China have signaled they concur.

Perhaps, Iran will not try to get away with violating resolutions like Iraq and Libya did... because I don't think either the EU or US is going to be patient.
You are apparently wearing your rose colored glasses today. I believe that Iran feels that the US in not in a position to do anything significant to them because of Iraq, and the EU countries are too fragmented politically to do anything. IMHO, Iran will ignore any resolutions passed in the UN. Why not? Everyone else does. You didn't mention Israel, but I feel there is a very good chance they will solve the Iranian Nuke building problem.

AZ GrayBeard
01-13-2006, 07:30 AM
OFallon, there have been plenty of analyses of our capability to attack Iran. Obviously, since it is on Internet, this analysis is no secret. Of course, things change quickly, and what was true a few days ago, may not be true now. I cannot see an attack (by us) like the one on Iraq as being likely. Here is the link and the article. This is a reasonable summary of the facilities that might be attacked and the equipment we might use.
-----------------------------------------


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

One potential military option that would be available to the United States includes the use of air strikes on Iranian weapons of mass destruction and missile facilities.

In all, there are perhaps two dozen suspected nuclear facilities in Iran. The 1000-megawatt nuclear plant Bushehr would likely be the target of such strikes. According to the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, the spent fuel from this facility would be capable of producing 50 to 75 bombs. Also, the suspected nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak will likely be targets of an air attack.

American air strikes on Iran would vastly exceed the scope of the 1981 Israeli attack on the Osiraq nuclear center in Iraq, and would more resemble the opening days of the 2003 air campaign against Iraq. Using the full force of operational B-2 stealth bombers, staging from Diego Garcia or flying direct from the United States, possibly supplemented by F-117 stealth fighters staging from al Udeid in Qatar or some other location in theater, the two-dozen suspect nuclear sites would be targeted.

Military planners could tailor their target list to reflect the preferences of the Administration by having limited air strikes that would target only the most crucial facilities in an effort to delay or obstruct the Iranian program or the United States could opt for a far more comprehensive set of strikes against a comprehensive range of WMD related targets, as well as conventional and unconventional forces that might be used to counterattack against US forces in Iraq.

Available US Forces

Many aircraft are still in the region supporting Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. The United States had aircraft at multiple locations throughout the Persian Gulf (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_air.htm), including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Diego Garcia. While the number of aircraft in the region has declined significantly since the end of major hostilities in Iraq, the United States continues to have some number of F-15Es, F-16s, naval aircraft, and some unidentified number of heavy bombers in the region.

Information regarding how many aircraft are actually in the Persian Gulf region is scant as units are returning to the United States and it is not clear if units are being sent as replacements. By mid-June 2003 there were no longer any AWACs in region and stealth aircraft had long since departed for the United States. Insufficient information regarding available aircraft makes it impossible to predict how many Joint Direct Attack Munition capable aircraft were available for strikes and how many potential aim points this would provide to mission planners.

Redeploying US forces to the region would take a small amount of time, but the absence of significant numbers of stealth aircraft, early warning aircraft, and other assets by September 2004 was a possible indicator that the United States was not actively considering the air strike option. The US had postured a number of strike aircraft to attack North Korea during the first half of 2003, and might make similar preparations in anticipation of a strike against Iran. Alternately, the US might wish to retain the element of surprise, and use heavy bomber forces staging directly from the United States.

Since the end of major hostilities in Iraq the United States has typically kept one aircraft carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf region (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_sea.htm) in support of Iraqi Freedom. Tomahawk cruise missiles deployed on cruisers, destroyers, and submarines could also be used to strike fixed locations. A Carrier Strike Group would typically have about 500 vertical launch system cells, which could mean that roughly 250 Tomahawks would be available for tasking.

OFallon
01-13-2006, 08:24 AM
AZ... great article - thanks! :D

No... I don't think we can go to Iran the way we did Iraq and I don't think we plan to. Producing a bit over 5% of the world's oil supplies... it's not in our interest to destroy more than necessary. I don't think Israel is going to commit, militarily, either.

I look for sanctions and isolation. Both the PRC and Russia have indicated that they are up for just about anything except military action; however... watch out. China is the actual final destination for nearly all Iranian oil.

Here's my take... as the eternal pessimist: Iran will become a nuclear nation and there's little we will do to stop it - so long as OPEC doesn't come out against Iran. If that happens... I do not believe carpet bombing or pin-point targeting facilities is beyond the realm of possibility.;)

Again... thanks! :D

OFallon
01-13-2006, 05:50 PM
Of course... if the Iranians, themselves, don't take care of this problem, then war in any one of its forms, becomes necessary and inevitable. The world simply cannot have an Iran armed with nukes.

AZ GrayBeard
01-13-2006, 06:50 PM
From Post #1 - - -
Here's my take... as the eternal pessimist: Iran will become a nuclear nation and there's little we will do to stop it
From Post #2 - - -
Of course... if the Iranians, themselves, don't take care of this problem, then war in any one of its forms, becomes necessary and inevitable. The world simply cannot have an Iran armed with nukes.
The first OFallon says that it is inevitable that Iran will have Nukes. The second OFallon says war is inevitable, and the world cannot have an Iran with Nukes. (BTW,Are there two of you guys?)
These two statements are telling me that you feel that it is inevitable that the world will go to war with Iran. Is Russia, China, the EU,and the U.S. in this world???

7.62mmFMJ
01-13-2006, 09:03 PM
It's nuance :lool: And waffling i.e. Kerry :lool:

OFallon
01-13-2006, 09:17 PM
AZ, the first post doesn't say that Iran will have "nukes" it says nuclear. The second post goes to the supposition that once they are nuclear, they'll graduate on to weaponry.

AZ... I don't think the American public has the stomach for another minimal coalition war, so, no I do not mean the US will go to war, per se. I could see that we might provide assistance. Russia and China both stand to lose a lot if Iran is blasted to smithereens. I see China doing nothing in that regards... Russia is a different animal, altogether. I could, indeed, envision them assisting with a regime change (it's in Putin's interests)... and the presense of their troops would preclude anyone else from entering. I think the Revolutionary Council might even invite them. Another surprise could be... don't laugh... France and the rest of the EU. They are stinging from our flagrantly calling them cowards and the fact is that Europe is a lot more achievable as a target than we are. I am still convinced that Israel will not take the initiative.

As to our assistance, I can envision a go-ahead by the UN and I can see us, not taking the lead, but involved in any number of ways, shy of boots on the ground or nuclear weapons.

Of course, as one not in the loop... this is all a WAG, but so is everyone else's ideas.;)

AZ GrayBeard
01-13-2006, 10:20 PM
AZ, the first post doesn't say that Iran will have "nukes" it says nuclear. The second post goes to the supposition that once they are nuclear, they'll graduate on to weaponry.

AZ... I don't think the American public has the stomach for another minimal coalition war, so, no I do not mean the US will go to war, per se. I could see that we might provide assistance. Russia and China both stand to lose a lot if Iran is blasted to smithereens. I see China doing nothing in that regards... Russia is a different animal, altogether. I could, indeed, envision them assisting with a regime change (it's in Putin's interests)... and the presense of their troops would preclude anyone else from entering. I think the Revolutionary Council might even invite them. Another surprise could be... don't laugh... France and the rest of the EU. They are stinging from our flagrantly calling them cowards and the fact is that Europe is a lot more achievable as a target than we are. I am still convinced that Israel will not take the initiative.

As to our assistance, I can envision a go-ahead by the UN and I can see us, not taking the lead, but involved in any number of ways, shy of boots on the ground or nuclear weapons.

Of course, as one not in the loop... this is all a WAG, but so is everyone else's ideas.;)
OFallon, I am not posting here to argue with you, but I am trying to understand your logic. With Iran, I consider the objective of any development of a nuclear power facility to be for generating material for a Nuke. They don't even try to hide the fact that their primary objective is to destroy Israel, and logically, that requires Nukes. Everything they do is with that objective in mind. Everything they say is to delay people from stopping them. So yes, I feel nuclear and Nuke is synonynous.

I think China will do a lot to protect Iran because the bulk of the Iranian oil goes to China. The Russians may actually gain if Iranian oil is forced off the market because of their oil supplies. The Russians are supplying technology, including missiles and nuclear power technology and probably some hardware, but they just want to be one of the good guys in ME, not fight us.

Sure, France hates us, they hate Israel, they hate Muslims, but their motto might as well be "every man for himself", because that is their social attitude. Others in the EU hate us, but it is mostly because they envy what they think we have and what they think we are. We will find no help from the EU with Iran, and except for those countries that fought along side us in Iraq, we should do nothing to protect the EU until we are so requested.

I think I agree with Old Soldier - The UN is a corrupt, inefficient organization that spits in our face at every opportunity. We should get out, but we will stay because it offers a forum for discussion. They will do nothing to solve the problem of Nukes in Iran. They don't know how.

Finally, there is little Israel. I wouldn't recommend that you sell their potential for neutralizing the threat from Iran short. You say that you think Israel will not take the initiative. Their lives are being threatened, and I think they will sting like hell rather than die. :)

Marinesg1012
01-13-2006, 10:36 PM
everyone already knows what I think we should do, should of done back in the 80's

AZ GrayBeard
01-14-2006, 05:42 AM
everyone already knows what I think we should do, should of done back in the 80's
Patience, my friend. You and your friends will probably walk on Iranian soil some day, if the radiation level is not too high. Timing is everything.

Marinesg1012
01-14-2006, 05:49 AM
My patience wears thin when psycho’s are trying to acquire nukes.

AZ GrayBeard
01-14-2006, 06:34 AM
My patience wears thin when psycho’s are trying to acquire nukes.
Knowing your vantage point, I understand. I am rather worried that we might have the "Cut and Run Party" in power when we need to act to prevent this impending catastrophe, and inaction at that time will get a bunch of Americans killed.

Marinesg1012
01-14-2006, 07:19 AM
inaction has always gotten Americans killed

7.62mmFMJ
01-14-2006, 09:34 AM
"inaction" is "their" middle name. as is nuance and waffle.

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